The Reserve Bank will probably embark on tighter monetary policy in December with an eye to a neutral official cash rate target of 4.5 percent, according to fund manager AMP Capital Investors.
New Zealand credit card spending rose for a third straight month in February, adding to signs that kiwis may be becoming a little less gloomy.
Move widely expected. RBNZ says global economy remains fragile.
The warning contrasts with many housing commentators highlighting the opposite scenario.