While still dropping from recent highs, it should show around 8.5% growth this year.

Exports and imports grew during January, but imports slightly faster.

But imports of capital equipment fell, suggesting while businesses have been investing more in such equipment over the past year, that pick up now appears to be tailing off.

The trade balance took its usual August drop last month, falling into a $641 million deficit.

The economy defied expectations of a trade deficit in July, delivering instead the first July surplus since 1991.

The country’s trade balance is returning to the black – for now, anyway.

Merchandise trade figures released this morning by Statistics New Zealand show exports rose $552 million to $3.8 million, with milk, butter and cheeses, and logs and wood the main contributors.

Exports are now close to their previous peak reached in late 2008.

However prices for dairy produce and other commodities are expected to fall towards the end of the year as the main causes of the recent rise – earthquakes in South America and droughts elsewhere – subsides.