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Labour leader likely to remain for now – iPredict

David Shearer is likely to remain the Labour Party leader until at least March next year, according to traders on the betting site iPredict

Speculation is rife Mr Shearer has done his dash as leader and it is only a matter of who will replace him as leader. 

iPredict traders, however, believe there is a 90% chance Mr Shearer will still be Labour leader on March 1, 2013. 

They reckon there is a 56% chance he will depart as leader some time in 2013, but only a 19% chance he will leave before the end of this year. 

When he does leave as leader, traders think there is a 55% probability David Cunliffe will replace him. 

Deputy leader Grant Robertson has a 24% chance of being made leader, with newcomer Andrew Little on 4%. 

More by Caleb Allison

Comments and questions

None of them have prime minister abilities.

God help the productive members of society (i.e.those that actually earn the country money and are not in professions funded by taxes collected by government) if this lot get into power.

god help those of us who actually work for a living when national get back in. WE'RE BORROWING $M A WEEK, unemployment is at a record high and the economy is faltering. I dont care if its red or blue I just want gorwth, stability and prosperity. Not too much to ask is it?

It doesn't matter who leads Labour because they will lose. We don't need a tax and spend party back in government. Even time Labour has been in power it always ends with a nasty recession. The Clark Govt did unbelievable damage to the NZ economy that will take years to repair.

Virtually every policy from employment to housing has been an absolute disaster for National. I can not recall any successful initiatives they have started.
Surely if Labour cannot get any traction now they should look at themselves and conclude that something is very wrong with their structure.
Most people looking from outside would conclude that there is an elephant in the room.
The name of the elephant is David Shearer, a nice guy but will never have the cut and thrust to be a Prime Minister.

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