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NZ housing market recovery looking unconvincing

The New Zealand residential property market recovery is looking a little unconvincing in a report by Mike Pero Mortgages.

The Mike Pero Mortgages-Infometrics Property Cycle Indicator (PCI) fell slightly to positive 5.23 in January, from 6.67 in December.

"Although the nationwide PCI was still positive in January 2010, the steadying of the housing market has dropped off."

Sales volumes in January were 1.1 percent lower than a year earlier, the first decline in activity since February last year, said Mike Pero Mortgages chief executive Shaun Riley.

The median house price dropped $10,000 from the previous month, but was still up 7.7 percent from January 2009.

The average number of days to sell property showed its typical seasonal increase in January, up 10 days from December 2009 to 43 days. This was still 16 days fewer than in January last year.

Northland was the only North Island region where the housing market gained momentum in January, according to the PCI.

In the South Island, the Central Otago Lakes region is back in positive territory after two-and-a-half years.

Rents continued their gradual strengthening in January, up 0.4 per cent from a year earlier.

During January floating mortgage rates held steady at 6.0 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Fixed mortgage rates were also largely unchanged.

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Comments and questions
6

If the NZ property market is 30% over-inflated, surely a property recovery would require the market to drop back to those kinds of levels? Or is the expectation that property prices will just keep going up and up exponentially as they have done over the last 8 years?

Clearly the economic melt down (once in a live time event?) has had little or no effect on NZ property to date if the vested interests of Banks and Agencies spin Docters are to be believed? Maybe the dead cat bounce is going to now land on the deck and the blood pour out of the sector? Rising interest rates, employment stats, and the generally more difficult Banking environment largely funding purchasers will bite and trend down values? or Business as usual, Yeh right! you 2 can have a Tui!!!! Who do you beleive?

ask any agent in good areas, and they will tell demand is hot for good property. we have been looking for 3 months and have seen some properties going for very high prices with very short time on the market. A massive shortage of listings is driving prices high shown by the 40 groups of people through open homes.

We just purchased after 3 months of looking, paid just over a mil for 3 bedroom in Kohi, 6% over 2008 CV. Above is right, good properties in good suburbs are hard to find and you have to pay for them, no bargains to be had what-so-ever. Anyone who has said these types of places have dropped or about to drop is not out there looking.

But they will appreciate ssubstantially slower than inflation rate over the next 10 years in effect losing 30% over a long time frame. It has happened before in NZ in the 70s.

The reason it is slow and not a crash is because people do not like to sell at a loss and so hang on in their properties. This means the market is not flooded with supply to cause a fast crash.

So if you buy a house be prepared to be buying it for a great liefstyle rather than a capital gain or pension fund. And for gods sake do not use it as a ATM - those days are over.

Great comment, a house is not an ATM too true so many are fooled by this illusion ..

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